The a priori approach to assessment of the hydrodynamic models in practice by known errors in the initial data

Authors: N.A. Cheremisin, T.G. Bikbulatova, S.V. Eletsky (TNNC LLC, RF, Tyumen)
E-mail: SVEletskiy@rosneft.com
Key words: hydrodynamic model, numerical methods, indirect error, assessment
of model.
A lot of model parameters (e.g. reserves, formation energy characteristics, production rates etc.) are set up with an error that relates to uncertainties of our knowledge regarding oil in place, inaccuracy of reservoir properties determination methods, determination of formation saturation, techniques of production rate measurement, human element etc. Within the classical theory of errors it is possible to determine the values of indirect mistake by means of known direct error. This work reviews only those aspects that relate to increase of solution uncertainty vs. time depending on known errors in model parameters setting. Having enough of representative production history, data uncertainty may also have an impact on solution uncertainties, regardless of correctness of reservoir simulation model history matching. In this case the increase of solution uncertainties doesn’t hinge on  professional skills and responsibility of a reservoir simulation expert and is determined solely by data inaccuracy. Nevertheless, the issue of applicability of these models with proper history matching still remains relevant and crucial.

References
1. Bol'shakov V.D., Teoriya oshibok nablyudeniy (Theory of errors of observation), Moscow: Nedra Publ., 1983, 223 p.
2. Otsenki primenimosti i tochnosti GDM (teoreticheskie aspekty) (Evaluate the applicability and accuracy of the reservoir simulation (theoretical aspects)), Tyumen': Publ. of OOO “TNNTs”, 2012, 12 p.
3. Metodicheskie ukazaniya po sozdaniyu postoyanno deystvuyushchikh geologo-tekhnologicheskikh modeley neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy (Guidelines for the establishment of permanent geological and technological models of oil and gas fields), Part 2. Fil'tratsionnye modeli (Filtration models), Moscow: Publ. of VNIIOENG, 2003, 224 p.
4. RD 153-39.0-047-00. Reglament po sozdaniyu postoyanno deystvuyushchikh geologo-tekhnologicheskikh modeley neftyanykh i gazoneftyanykh mestorozhdeniy (Regulations to establish a permanent geological and engineering models of oil and gas fields), Moscow: Publ. of Minenergo RF, 2000, 130 p.
E-mail: SVEletskiy@rosneft.com
Key words: hydrodynamic model, numerical methods, indirect error, assessment
of model.
A lot of model parameters (e.g. reserves, formation energy characteristics, production rates etc.) are set up with an error that relates to uncertainties of our knowledge regarding oil in place, inaccuracy of reservoir properties determination methods, determination of formation saturation, techniques of production rate measurement, human element etc. Within the classical theory of errors it is possible to determine the values of indirect mistake by means of known direct error. This work reviews only those aspects that relate to increase of solution uncertainty vs. time depending on known errors in model parameters setting. Having enough of representative production history, data uncertainty may also have an impact on solution uncertainties, regardless of correctness of reservoir simulation model history matching. In this case the increase of solution uncertainties doesn’t hinge on  professional skills and responsibility of a reservoir simulation expert and is determined solely by data inaccuracy. Nevertheless, the issue of applicability of these models with proper history matching still remains relevant and crucial.

References
1. Bol'shakov V.D., Teoriya oshibok nablyudeniy (Theory of errors of observation), Moscow: Nedra Publ., 1983, 223 p.
2. Otsenki primenimosti i tochnosti GDM (teoreticheskie aspekty) (Evaluate the applicability and accuracy of the reservoir simulation (theoretical aspects)), Tyumen': Publ. of OOO “TNNTs”, 2012, 12 p.
3. Metodicheskie ukazaniya po sozdaniyu postoyanno deystvuyushchikh geologo-tekhnologicheskikh modeley neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy (Guidelines for the establishment of permanent geological and technological models of oil and gas fields), Part 2. Fil'tratsionnye modeli (Filtration models), Moscow: Publ. of VNIIOENG, 2003, 224 p.
4. RD 153-39.0-047-00. Reglament po sozdaniyu postoyanno deystvuyushchikh geologo-tekhnologicheskikh modeley neftyanykh i gazoneftyanykh mestorozhdeniy (Regulations to establish a permanent geological and engineering models of oil and gas fields), Moscow: Publ. of Minenergo RF, 2000, 130 p.


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