On the basis of the hydrodynamic model using statistical modeling estimated is the impact on the dynamics of oil withdrawal of three uncertain factors: changing the position of the oil-water contact and the surface boundaries of the transition zone, while maintaining the value of the initial oil reserves; possible variations in the density of heavy oil; change in the distribution of zones of different phase permeabilities in the reservoir. Mathematical modeling of the 100 realizations of PVT properties of oil-water zone showed good stability of the base variant of development with respect to changes in these factors. The bulk of the realizations leads to minor changes in the design dynamics of production, although the variation in the cumulative production for individual wells is much larger.
1. Vovk V.S., Zakharov E.V., Chernov Yu.Ya. et al., Collected papers “Sostoyanie i perspektivy osvoeniya morskikh neftegazovykh mestorozhdeniy” (Status and prospects of the development of offshore oil and gas fields), Moscow:
Publ. of OOO “VNIIGAZ”, 2003, pp. 91-100.
2. Razumova O.V., Panarin A.T., Koroleva E.N., Proceedings of Scientific and
practical workshop “Aktual'nye voprosy proektirovaniya razrabotki
mestorozhdeniy uglevodorodov” (Current issues of design of hydrocarbon
fields development), 22 maya 2011, Moscow: Publ. of OOO “Gazprom VNIIGAZ”, 2011, p. 20.
3. Alkhimov R.G., Semenov A.M., Chernov Yu.Ya., Collected papers “Osvoenie
morskikh neftegazovykh mestorozhdeniy: sostoyanie, problemy i perspektivy”
(Development of offshore oil and gas fields: Status, Challenges and
Prospects), Moscow: Publ. of OOO “Gazprom VNIIGAZ”, 2008, pp. 94-102.
4. Mikhaylov N.N., Kol'chitskaya T.N., Dzhemesyuk A.V., Semenova N.A.
Fiziko-geologicheskie problemy ostatochnoy neftenasyshchennosti (Physical
and geological problems of residual oil saturation), Moscow: Nauka
Publ., 1993, 173 p.
5. Khanin A.A.,Ostatochnaya voda v kollektorakh nefti i gaza (Residual water
in the reservoirs of oil and gas), Moscow: Gostoptekh Publ., 1963, 208 p.
6. Ermakov C.M., Metod Monte-Karlo i smezhnye voprosy (The Monte Carlo
method and related matters), Moscow: Nauka Publ., 1975, 471 p.