Probabilistic evaluation of oil and gas exploration assets

The theory and practice of technical and commercial feasibility studies of exploration assets applied in Bashneft JSOC are described. It is given the determination of COS (‘chance of success’ – probability of a discovery) evaluated by assigning values to a set of geological factors and establishing their relationship in the case of multiple target formations or prospects. Monte Carlo distributions of the input parameters for volumetric calculations and recoverable reserves are shown. Cases for calculating the production profiles and other performance parameters, as well as the probabalistic determination of the number of development wells and flow rate range of values are considered.

Key words: technical and commercial study of exploration assets, probabilistic reserves evaluation, Monte-Carlo method, probability distribution, chance of success, probability of success, Ores software.