On the issue of improving the quality of mathematical modeling in solving problems of oil field development support

UDK: 622.276.1/.4.001.57
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2023-4-56-60
Key words: mathematical modeling, field development, hydrodynamic model, proxy model, capacitance-resistive models (CRM), hierarchy of models
Authors: S.V. Stepanov (Tyumen Petroleum Research Center LLC, RF, Tyumen), A.V. Arzhilovskiy (Tyumen Petroleum Research Center LLC, RF, Tyumen)

The quality of mathematical modeling is an important aspect of the effective development of oil fields. The article discusses the problems of hydrodynamic modeling, which lead to the need to study the feasibility of using other, simpler types of models to solve standard problems of field development. Proxy models are considered as an alternative to the hydrodynamic model: empirical oil fractional-flow models, capacitance-resistive model (CRM), and single-layer reservoir model. It is shown that all the problems that arise when accompanying oil fields development can be successfully solved using a single-layer reservoir model, which requires significantly less resources than the hydrodynamic model and at the same time has a similar predictive ability. Some of the tasks can be solved using the CRM model. The article also says that the quality of modeling can be improved through the development of modeling approaches; in particular, the development of hierarchical modeling, which means sequential modeling of the same object using consistent models of different types, ranging from the simplest to the most complex, is a promising direction. Using the considered types of models, a plan for constructing a hierarchy of models is proposed. It is assumed that the use of proxy models, including in the concept of a hierarchy of models, it will provide an opportunity for uncertainty analysis and will allow to obtain a probabilistic modeling result instead of a deterministic one, as it is when using hydrodynamic modeling. The article draws attention to the importance of correct modeling of near-well processes. It is shown that proxy models are able to simulate such processes, which should have a positive effect on the quality of modeling.

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