Comprehensive approach to predicting consequences of accidents in tank farms

UDK: 622.692.23.004 .6
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2022-6-100-104
Key words: localization and elimination of accidents and their consequences, main pipeline, simulation, hazardous production facility, prediction, industrial safety, spill of oil and oil products, tank farm
Authors: V.N. Slepnev (The Pipeline Transport Institute LLC, RF, Moscow), A.E. Gonchar (The Pipeline Transport Institute LLC, RF, Moscow)

The article presents a comprehensive approach, which permits to improve the accidents prediction system for tank farms. The comprehensive approach incorporates the following three stages: 1) numerical computer simulation of farm failure, evaluating forces of oil /oil products wave hydrodynamic effects on storage tank farm square enclosure walls; 2) calculation of storage tank farm square walls bearing capacity under extreme loads of oil /oil products’ waves; 3) computer simulation based on terrain relief with account of results obtained at the previous stages. The scientific novelty of the given recommendations is in synthesis of studied and time-and-experience proven methodological approaches, which have been confirmed by full-scale tests and results of investigations of happened accidents. Use of three methodologies in the approach permits to approximate with maximum likelihood ratio the simulated situations to possible results of crashes with considering a maximum quantity of factors that affect the consequences of possible accidents. The proposed approach could be incorporated in the management system of an enterprise, which provides services in transportation, storage or transfer of oil and oil products. The balanced system for predicting consequences of possible accidents, acceptance of preventive measures on avoidance of disastrous consequences will permit to decrease risks of unintended consequences for both the enterprise and third parties and economy as a whole. Uninterrupted operation of midstream operation facilities is one of the critical factors for ensuring energy security of Russia, a policy challenge, solution of which could be reached by various ways, including application of the comprehensive approach proposed by the authors. This approach is teamwork of interdisciplinary interaction of several science fields, which is successfully tested and endorsed for pipeline transportation facilities.

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