Coronavirus and the resulting crisis: about the prospects of the world economy and energy

UDK: 338.45
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2020-6-6-12
Key words: coronavirus pandemic, coronavirus crisis, forecasts, global economy, energy consumption, energy efficiency, renewable energy sources (RES), oil, natural gas, coal, electric power industry, investment in the energy sector, diversification of the Russian economy, oil and gas chemistry, resource-innovative sustainable development
Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow; Institute of Energy Strategy, RF, Moscow; Gubkin University, RF, Moscow)

The article is devoted to changes in the global economy and energy that have occurred over the past year and a half. The main driving forces of these changes are shown - price and trade wars and sharply increased volatility in world commodity markets, the coronavirus pandemic accompanied by an economic recession and a collapse in energy prices. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the coronavirus crisis on the global economy and energy consumption is considered. Various estimates of the impact of this crisis on the development of economic processes and their evolution are shown, and it is concluded that in the conditions of high uncertainty, all these estimates deserve careful consideration. The main uncertainties related to the economic prospects, including the trajectory of the pandemic, the consequences and duration of measures to contain the spread of the virus, strategies for its re-emergence, as well as the form and speed of recovery of people as the pandemic recedes, as well as shape and speed of people recovering as the pandemic is removed, and the uncertainties associated with overcoming the crisis are identified. The analysis of existing forecasts for the development of the economic situation and energy consumption in the current year, made by the World Monetary Fund, the European Commission, the International Energy Agency, the OPEC Secretariat and other organizations is carried out. Special attention is paid to estimates and forecasts of demand for oil and petroleum products in conjunction/connection with the need to accelerate the transition to clean energy in order to mitigate the risks of climate change, successes in the development of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, and technological development in general. The forecast of investment in the energy sector of the global economy made by the IEA and the main changes in investment activity due to the crisis caused by the coronavirus are examined in detail. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the possible impact of this crisis on the energy sector of the Russian economy and on the prospects for the development of energy in Russia, especially its oil and gas industry. It is concluded that the global multi-level crisis should finally become the impetus that will force us to take real steps towards overcoming the dependence of the Russian economy on raw materials and forming an innovative economy based on high-tech industrial production. This crisis should become an additional reason for the country's leadership to take all possible measures to accelerate the diversification of the Russian economy, ensure the development of oil and gas chemistry and other industries related to deep processing of natural resources, and accelerate the transition to the rails of resource-innovative sustainable development.

References

1. Mastepanov A.M., Mirovaya energetika – novye vyzovy (World Energy – New challenges), Report at the Nice Club's annual forum “Energy and Geopolitics”, URL: http://www.iehei.org/Club_de_Nice/2010/MASTEPANOV_2010.pdf

2. Mastepanov A.M., The world at a break or a new reality: prospects for the development of the energy industry and its oil and gas sector (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2020, no. 5, pp. 9-10.

3. URL: https://rbc.us20.list-manage.cjm/track/click?u=9593212aae48ef980d8 bc6b57&d=a38263a3f4&e=9626405cf2

4. Global Energy Review 2020. The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions, IEA, April 2020, URL: https://webstore.iea.org/login?ReturnUrl=%2fdownload%2fdirect%2f2995

5. European Economic Forecast. Spring 2020, Institutional paper no. 125, May 2020, URL: https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecast...

6. Europe’s moment: Repair and prepare for the next generation, URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1590732521013&uri=COM:2020:456:FIN

7. URL: https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_coronavirus_a_geopolitical_earthquake?

8. Protivodeystvie krizisu: prioritetnye zadachi dlya mirovoy ekonomiki (Countering the Crisis: Priorities for the World Economy), URL: https://www.imf.org/ru/News/Articles/2020/04/07/sp040920-SMs2020-Curtain-Raiser

9. World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown, URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020

10. OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – April 2020; OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – May 2020, URL: https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/

11. Oil Market Report, URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market- report-

12. Oil 2020. Analysis and forecast to 2025, IEA, 9 March 2020, 120 r., URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2020

13. World Energy Investment 2020. IEA, May 2020, 207 r., URL: https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/3003

14. Mastepanov A.M., Energy transition as a new challenge for the global oil and gas industry (In Russ.), Energeticheskaya politika, 2019, no. 2, pp. 62-69.

15. Mastepanov A.M., Energy transition: what should the oil and gas world get ready for (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2019, no. 10(178), pp. 5-14.

16. Oganesyan T., Bol'shaya “zelenaya” sdelka ES (Big green EU deal), URL: https://stimul.online/articles/sreda/bolshaya-zelenaya-sdelka-es/

17. Sidorovich V., Evropeyskoe “Zelenoe soglashenie” i ego posledstviya dlya Rossii (The European Green Agreement and its implications for Russia), URL: https://renen.ru/the-european-green-deal-and-its-implications-for-russia/

18. Sadyrkin P., Zelenyy shans. Koronavirus menyaet mirovuyu ekonomiku. Kak Rossiya mozhet vyigrat' ot etogo? (Green chance. Coronavirus is changing the global economy. How can Russia benefit from this?), URL: https://lenta.ru/articles/2020/05/08/chance/

19. Kortunov A.V., Balans slabostey. Kak epidemiya izmenit otnosheniya Rossii i ES (Balance of weaknesses. How the epidemic will change relations between Russia and the EU), URL: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81601?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWm1

20. Gabuev A., Umarov T., Ekstrennoe sblizhenie. Kak pandemiya usilit zavisimost' Rossii ot Kitaya (Emergency rapprochement. How a pandemic will increase Russia's dependence on China), URL: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81633

The article is devoted to changes in the global economy and energy that have occurred over the past year and a half. The main driving forces of these changes are shown - price and trade wars and sharply increased volatility in world commodity markets, the coronavirus pandemic accompanied by an economic recession and a collapse in energy prices. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the coronavirus crisis on the global economy and energy consumption is considered. Various estimates of the impact of this crisis on the development of economic processes and their evolution are shown, and it is concluded that in the conditions of high uncertainty, all these estimates deserve careful consideration. The main uncertainties related to the economic prospects, including the trajectory of the pandemic, the consequences and duration of measures to contain the spread of the virus, strategies for its re-emergence, as well as the form and speed of recovery of people as the pandemic recedes, as well as shape and speed of people recovering as the pandemic is removed, and the uncertainties associated with overcoming the crisis are identified. The analysis of existing forecasts for the development of the economic situation and energy consumption in the current year, made by the World Monetary Fund, the European Commission, the International Energy Agency, the OPEC Secretariat and other organizations is carried out. Special attention is paid to estimates and forecasts of demand for oil and petroleum products in conjunction/connection with the need to accelerate the transition to clean energy in order to mitigate the risks of climate change, successes in the development of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, and technological development in general. The forecast of investment in the energy sector of the global economy made by the IEA and the main changes in investment activity due to the crisis caused by the coronavirus are examined in detail. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the possible impact of this crisis on the energy sector of the Russian economy and on the prospects for the development of energy in Russia, especially its oil and gas industry. It is concluded that the global multi-level crisis should finally become the impetus that will force us to take real steps towards overcoming the dependence of the Russian economy on raw materials and forming an innovative economy based on high-tech industrial production. This crisis should become an additional reason for the country's leadership to take all possible measures to accelerate the diversification of the Russian economy, ensure the development of oil and gas chemistry and other industries related to deep processing of natural resources, and accelerate the transition to the rails of resource-innovative sustainable development.

References

1. Mastepanov A.M., Mirovaya energetika – novye vyzovy (World Energy – New challenges), Report at the Nice Club's annual forum “Energy and Geopolitics”, URL: http://www.iehei.org/Club_de_Nice/2010/MASTEPANOV_2010.pdf

2. Mastepanov A.M., The world at a break or a new reality: prospects for the development of the energy industry and its oil and gas sector (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2020, no. 5, pp. 9-10.

3. URL: https://rbc.us20.list-manage.cjm/track/click?u=9593212aae48ef980d8 bc6b57&d=a38263a3f4&e=9626405cf2

4. Global Energy Review 2020. The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions, IEA, April 2020, URL: https://webstore.iea.org/login?ReturnUrl=%2fdownload%2fdirect%2f2995

5. European Economic Forecast. Spring 2020, Institutional paper no. 125, May 2020, URL: https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecast...

6. Europe’s moment: Repair and prepare for the next generation, URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1590732521013&uri=COM:2020:456:FIN

7. URL: https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_coronavirus_a_geopolitical_earthquake?

8. Protivodeystvie krizisu: prioritetnye zadachi dlya mirovoy ekonomiki (Countering the Crisis: Priorities for the World Economy), URL: https://www.imf.org/ru/News/Articles/2020/04/07/sp040920-SMs2020-Curtain-Raiser

9. World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown, URL: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020

10. OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – April 2020; OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – May 2020, URL: https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/

11. Oil Market Report, URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market- report-

12. Oil 2020. Analysis and forecast to 2025, IEA, 9 March 2020, 120 r., URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2020

13. World Energy Investment 2020. IEA, May 2020, 207 r., URL: https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/3003

14. Mastepanov A.M., Energy transition as a new challenge for the global oil and gas industry (In Russ.), Energeticheskaya politika, 2019, no. 2, pp. 62-69.

15. Mastepanov A.M., Energy transition: what should the oil and gas world get ready for (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2019, no. 10(178), pp. 5-14.

16. Oganesyan T., Bol'shaya “zelenaya” sdelka ES (Big green EU deal), URL: https://stimul.online/articles/sreda/bolshaya-zelenaya-sdelka-es/

17. Sidorovich V., Evropeyskoe “Zelenoe soglashenie” i ego posledstviya dlya Rossii (The European Green Agreement and its implications for Russia), URL: https://renen.ru/the-european-green-deal-and-its-implications-for-russia/

18. Sadyrkin P., Zelenyy shans. Koronavirus menyaet mirovuyu ekonomiku. Kak Rossiya mozhet vyigrat' ot etogo? (Green chance. Coronavirus is changing the global economy. How can Russia benefit from this?), URL: https://lenta.ru/articles/2020/05/08/chance/

19. Kortunov A.V., Balans slabostey. Kak epidemiya izmenit otnosheniya Rossii i ES (Balance of weaknesses. How the epidemic will change relations between Russia and the EU), URL: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81601?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWm1

20. Gabuev A., Umarov T., Ekstrennoe sblizhenie. Kak pandemiya usilit zavisimost' Rossii ot Kitaya (Emergency rapprochement. How a pandemic will increase Russia's dependence on China), URL: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81633



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