The methodology for economic evaluation of oil and gas investment projects in Kazakhstan

UDK: 338.28:622.276
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2020-1-15-19
Key words: oil and gas project, economic model, tax model, comparative analysis, economic efficiency, drilling, blockchain, neural networks
Authors: Yu.G. Bogatkina (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow), N.A. Eremin (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow)

The article presents the methodology for economic evaluation of oil and gas investment projects in Kazakhstan. The economic assessment includes technological options, on the basis of which a feasibility study of the oil recovery methods is carried out in order to justify the most effective of them. When drawing up models of calculations of economic indicators and an assessment of variants of development, the principal feature of belonging of fields, layers, reservoir objects to two main groups is considered. These are new (green) fields, layers, reservoir objects with growing production and "old" (brown) ones being developed, with declining oil (gas) production. These groups of fields require the different depth of research, methods of calculation of economic indicators, a regulatory and information base, and conditions of comparison and evaluation of the effectiveness of field development. At the time of project development, only residual reserves are subject to economic valuation. For the calculation of capital investments and operating costs for oil and gas production, special cost standards are required, differentiated by the considered well placement systems (cases) and design stages. Standards of capital and operating costs are justified by the authors of the projects on the basis of design estimates and analysis of actual information, taking into account the inflation price indices developed and approved by the government.

On the example of one of the fields of Kazakhstan, a comparative calculation of the main economic indicators was carried out according to the Kazakh and Russian methods, taking into account the tax models operating in the subsoil use legislation. The presented results indicate that, compared to the current Russian model, the tax model of Kazakhstan can increase the income of the investor, due to the tax "maneuver" based on the use of sliding scales for the payment of taxes. The flexibility of the tax model of Kazakhstan allows to differentiate tax rates depending on the level of production and prices, which allows to maintain the stability of the tax system in oil production due to the high capital intensity of production, long payback periods of projects, high geological risks associated with uncertainty in the volume and quality of reserves, as well as high volatility of oil prices.


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