The future of the oil industry in the face of energy transition. View analysis and ratings of foreign experts

UDK: 330.524 : 620.9
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2020-1-10-14
Key words: energy transition, technologies, innovation, power consumption, energy efficiency, renewable energy sources (RES), oil, natural gas, coal, electric power industry
Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow; Institute of Energy Strategy, RF, Moscow; Gubkin University, RF, Moscow)

The paper considers the problems of the mankind transition to the energy of the future, called the Energy Transition (or Global Energy Transformation). The reasons for the transition necessity, the possibilities and conditions of its implementation, including the required investments, are analyzed. It is shown that the energy transition became possible as a result of a number of technological innovations achieved at the beginning of the XXI century in the energy industry of the world economy. The analysis of the main prognostic studies and scenarios of the transition to the energy of the future is carried out, the influence of various factors determining the global demand for energy resources and its structure up to 2040-2050 is shown: increase in energy efficiency, introduction of low-carbon technologies, development of renewable energy sources and increase in their share in total consumption primary energy carriers. Possible results of energy transfer are shown: volumes and structure of global energy consumption, dynamics of demand for oil and natural gas. It is concluded that during the transition period (until 2035–2040), oil will retain a significant role in shaping the global energy balance, but demand for it will decrease. The role of technological innovations is noted, the main factors determining the predicted reduction in oil requirements are considered: the electrification of cars, passenger and light commercial vehicles; increased fuel efficiency; increased use of biofuels and natural gas in vehicles; reduced use of petroleum products in shipping; transition to the production of bioplastics and the growth of plastic recycling. The role of oil and gas companies in the context of the energy transition and the challenges they face are shown, Eastern Economic Forum recommendations for politicians and governments are given.


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