The use of robust solutions to select the optimal strategy for the implementation of exploration projects

UDK: 550.8.011
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2018-12-11-13
Key words:, Keywords: robust management, development strategy, optimization, exploration, investment planning
Authors: A.A. Vashkevich (Gazprom Neft PJSC, RF, Saint-Petersburg), M.M. Khasanov (Gazprom Neft PJSC, RF, Saint-Petersburg; Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg), M.N. Pislegin (Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg), T.G. Kuzmin (Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg), P.Yu. Kiselev (Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg), E.G. Fedorov(Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg), A.V. Bondarenko (Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg)

Robust management is the determination of goals and decisions with a given probability while maximizing the expected value facing uncertainties. An obvious specificity and the advantage of robust management is that it allows to account simultaneously expected costs and chance of success. Which means that the developed strategy will allow to achieve the goal regardless the outcome of uncertainties. This makes possible to analyze risks when making decisions and to develop a goal achieving strategy. Currently, the principles of robust management are implemented in many areas, but it is especially valuable in greenfield development projects due to the high degree of uncertainty. The geological uncertainties are the main in oilfield development. Due to the large number of loosely coupled reservoirs and the long phases of the oilfield exploration, the robust optimization allows to take into account all incoming information and making the best decision for further development.

The paper examines the use of robust management to determine the optimal strategy for the development of assets, ensuring the achievement of a certain level of production with a given probability. Gazprom Neft PJSC tested the robust management approaches on ten exploration projects. A strategy that takes into account the information received during the development and research of these assets was found as a result. This strategy allows to “react” and accelerate the development of the remaining assets in case of unfavorable uncertainty outcomes, and “react” and slow down or postpone the development of the remaining assets in case of favorable outcomes in order to maintain plateau oil rate. Finally, the strategy allows to achieve the optimal expected monetary value with probability limit.


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