Statistical methods for data and displacement characteristics analysis co-application can be used as an effective tool for the prediction of an oil production in the conditions of a low descriptiveness of geological characteristics of oil reservoirs and physical properties of oil. A systematic literature review showed that the development of the algorithm to determine displacement characteristics is an actual problem.

In order to solve the mentioned problem, the algorithm based on regression methods, prediction methods, optimization methods, and ranking methods was proposed. The used wells stock is formed by the exclusion of wells where workover actions were performed either to increase the inflow rate, or to obtain an influx from an inactive well, or to obtain an influx from a new well, or to change an influx structure from the active wells stock by the last monthly production report date.

The algorithm for the determination of displacement characteristics was tested on oil fields of Bashneft PJSOC. As the result, 162 displacement characteristics of oil fields were determined. The quality of displacement characteristics was defined by the adequacy criteria and accuracy criteria. Using determined displacement characteristics, the median of the module of the mean deviation of the estimated oil production rate from the real one was 7.85% during the retrospective period.

Based on the test results, the proposed algorithm is confirmed to be sustainable and resultative and can be applied to predict base oil production in oil companies.

References

1. Garifullin A.Sh., Kurmakaeva S.A., Rodin V.I., Ispol’zovanie empiricheskikh zavisimostey pri proektirovanii razrabotki mestorozhdeniy Krasnokholmskoy gruppy (The use of empirical dependencies in the design of the Krasnokholmskoye field development), Collected papers “Problemy geologii i razrabotki neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy v rayonakh s istoshchayushchimisya resursami” (Problems of geology and development of oil fields in areas with depleting resources), 1989, pp. 81–86.

2. Maksimov M.I., The method for calculating recoverable oil in the final stage of exploitation of oil reservoirs under oil displacement by water (In Russ.), Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1959, no. 3, pp. 42–47.

3. Nazarov S.N., Sipachev N.V., Technique of forecasting technological indicators at the late stage of development of oil deposits (In Russ.), Izvestiya vuzov. Neft’ i gaz, 1972, no. 10, pp. 41–46.

4. Sazonov B.F., Sovershenstvovanie tekhnologii razrabotki neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy pri vodonapornom rezhime (Perfection of technology of development of oil deposits at a water-pressure mode), Moscow: Nedra Publ., 1973, 238 p.

5. Pirverdyan A.M., Nikitin P.I., Listengarten L.B., Danelyan M.G., On the forecast of oil and associated water production in the development of bedded heterogeneous reservoirs (In Russ.), Azerbaydzhanskoe neftyanoe khozyaystvo, 1970, no. 11, pp. 19–22.

6. Kambarov G.S., Almamedov D. G., Makhmudova T.Yu., Determining the initial recoverable reserves of oilfield (In Russ.), Azerbaydzhanskoe neftyanoe khozyaystvo, 1974, no. 3, pp. 22–24.

7. Garifullin A.Sh., Salakhov R.T., Sovremennyy metod otsenki potentsial’noy nefteotdachi ob»ekta razrabotki pri vytesnenii nefti vodoy (A modern method for assessing the potential oil recovery of a development facility when oil is displaced by water), Collected papers “Noveyshie issledovaniya v neftyanoy geologii, modelirovanii, razrabotke neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy i dobyche nefti” (The latest research in oil geology, modeling, development of oil fields and oil production), 2011, pp. 128–135.

8. Kostrigin I.V., Mukhamedshin R.K., Zagurenko T.G., Khatmullin I.F., Rukovodstvo pol’zovatelya po modulyu Zapasy programmnogo kompleksa RN-KIN (User’s Guide to the module Expected Reservesof the RN-KIN software package), Moscow: Publ. of Rosneft Oil Company, 2011.

9. Garb F.A., Calculations of the dynamics of production decline according to the data of the water cut in the extracted products (In Russ.), Inzhener-neftyanik, 1978, no. 7, pp. 21–25.

10. Rumshinskiy L.Z., Matematicheskaya obrabotka rezul’tatov eksperimenta (Mathematical processing of experimental results), Moscow: Nauka Publ., 1971, 192 p.

11. Sukharev A.G., Timokhov A.V., Fedorov V.V., Kurs metodov optimizatsii (Course of optimization methods), Moscow: Nauka Publ., 1986, 328 p.

12. Shelobaev S.I., Matematicheskie metody i modeli (Mathematical methods and models), Moscow: Publ. of YuNITI, 2000, 367 p.

13. Dixon W. J., Massey F.J. Jr., Introduction to statistical analysis, New York, NY, US: McGraw-Hill, 1957.

14. Regenwetter M., Grofman B., Approval voting, Borda winners, and Condorcet winners: Evidence from seven elections, Management Science, 1998, V. 44, no. 4, pp. 520–533.

15. Panchenko T.V., Geneticheskie algoritmy (Genetic algorithms), Astrakhan’: Publ. of Astrakhanskiy universitet, 2007, 87 p.

16. Rogers D.F., Adams J.A., Mathematical elements for computer graphics, McGraw-Hill, Inc. New York, NY, USA, 1990, 604 p.

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Statistical methods for data and displacement characteristics analysis co-application can be used as an effective tool for the prediction of an oil production in the conditions of a low descriptiveness of geological characteristics of oil reservoirs and physical properties of oil. A systematic literature review showed that the development of the algorithm to determine displacement characteristics is an actual problem.

In order to solve the mentioned problem, the algorithm based on regression methods, prediction methods, optimization methods, and ranking methods was proposed. The used wells stock is formed by the exclusion of wells where workover actions were performed either to increase the inflow rate, or to obtain an influx from an inactive well, or to obtain an influx from a new well, or to change an influx structure from the active wells stock by the last monthly production report date.

The algorithm for the determination of displacement characteristics was tested on oil fields of Bashneft PJSOC. As the result, 162 displacement characteristics of oil fields were determined. The quality of displacement characteristics was defined by the adequacy criteria and accuracy criteria. Using determined displacement characteristics, the median of the module of the mean deviation of the estimated oil production rate from the real one was 7.85% during the retrospective period.

Based on the test results, the proposed algorithm is confirmed to be sustainable and resultative and can be applied to predict base oil production in oil companies.

References

1. Garifullin A.Sh., Kurmakaeva S.A., Rodin V.I., Ispol’zovanie empiricheskikh zavisimostey pri proektirovanii razrabotki mestorozhdeniy Krasnokholmskoy gruppy (The use of empirical dependencies in the design of the Krasnokholmskoye field development), Collected papers “Problemy geologii i razrabotki neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy v rayonakh s istoshchayushchimisya resursami” (Problems of geology and development of oil fields in areas with depleting resources), 1989, pp. 81–86.

2. Maksimov M.I., The method for calculating recoverable oil in the final stage of exploitation of oil reservoirs under oil displacement by water (In Russ.), Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1959, no. 3, pp. 42–47.

3. Nazarov S.N., Sipachev N.V., Technique of forecasting technological indicators at the late stage of development of oil deposits (In Russ.), Izvestiya vuzov. Neft’ i gaz, 1972, no. 10, pp. 41–46.

4. Sazonov B.F., Sovershenstvovanie tekhnologii razrabotki neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy pri vodonapornom rezhime (Perfection of technology of development of oil deposits at a water-pressure mode), Moscow: Nedra Publ., 1973, 238 p.

5. Pirverdyan A.M., Nikitin P.I., Listengarten L.B., Danelyan M.G., On the forecast of oil and associated water production in the development of bedded heterogeneous reservoirs (In Russ.), Azerbaydzhanskoe neftyanoe khozyaystvo, 1970, no. 11, pp. 19–22.

6. Kambarov G.S., Almamedov D. G., Makhmudova T.Yu., Determining the initial recoverable reserves of oilfield (In Russ.), Azerbaydzhanskoe neftyanoe khozyaystvo, 1974, no. 3, pp. 22–24.

7. Garifullin A.Sh., Salakhov R.T., Sovremennyy metod otsenki potentsial’noy nefteotdachi ob»ekta razrabotki pri vytesnenii nefti vodoy (A modern method for assessing the potential oil recovery of a development facility when oil is displaced by water), Collected papers “Noveyshie issledovaniya v neftyanoy geologii, modelirovanii, razrabotke neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy i dobyche nefti” (The latest research in oil geology, modeling, development of oil fields and oil production), 2011, pp. 128–135.

8. Kostrigin I.V., Mukhamedshin R.K., Zagurenko T.G., Khatmullin I.F., Rukovodstvo pol’zovatelya po modulyu Zapasy programmnogo kompleksa RN-KIN (User’s Guide to the module Expected Reservesof the RN-KIN software package), Moscow: Publ. of Rosneft Oil Company, 2011.

9. Garb F.A., Calculations of the dynamics of production decline according to the data of the water cut in the extracted products (In Russ.), Inzhener-neftyanik, 1978, no. 7, pp. 21–25.

10. Rumshinskiy L.Z., Matematicheskaya obrabotka rezul’tatov eksperimenta (Mathematical processing of experimental results), Moscow: Nauka Publ., 1971, 192 p.

11. Sukharev A.G., Timokhov A.V., Fedorov V.V., Kurs metodov optimizatsii (Course of optimization methods), Moscow: Nauka Publ., 1986, 328 p.

12. Shelobaev S.I., Matematicheskie metody i modeli (Mathematical methods and models), Moscow: Publ. of YuNITI, 2000, 367 p.

13. Dixon W. J., Massey F.J. Jr., Introduction to statistical analysis, New York, NY, US: McGraw-Hill, 1957.

14. Regenwetter M., Grofman B., Approval voting, Borda winners, and Condorcet winners: Evidence from seven elections, Management Science, 1998, V. 44, no. 4, pp. 520–533.

15. Panchenko T.V., Geneticheskie algoritmy (Genetic algorithms), Astrakhan’: Publ. of Astrakhanskiy universitet, 2007, 87 p.

16. Rogers D.F., Adams J.A., Mathematical elements for computer graphics, McGraw-Hill, Inc. New York, NY, USA, 1990, 604 p.

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