Forecasting the development of the world oil and gas complex as a reflection of global problems and trends in energy consumption

UDK: 338.2:622.276
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2018-5-6-11
Key words: forecasts and scenarios, the world economy and energy, world's energy consumption and its structure, oil and total liquids demand, world oil and other liquids hydrocarbons production
Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow, Institute of Energy Strategy, RF, Moscow)

The complex of questions connected with long-term forecasting of development of oil and gas sector of world economy in the context with forecasting of global energy consumption in general is considered in the article. The most important factors, problems, trends and events that determine the behavior of the oil market in the short and medium term are considered. The analysis of the forecasts published in 2016-2017 of the world's leading forecasting centers - the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, the OPEC Secretariat, Japan Energy Economics Institute and ExxonMobil - is carried out. Based on this analysis, the main trends and patterns of development of global energy consumption in the period up to 2040 were revealed. Among them are further improvement of the energy balance in use without carbon and low-carbon energy and energy resources, while the role of oil in it in the latest forecasts even grows. The inconsistency of the considered forecasts is particularly noted that, according to the author, the degree of uncertainty of development of both the world economy as a whole and the world energy is growing. In his treasure in this growth are making and globalization, and geopolitics, and the explosive development of science and technology. The situation is aggravated by the emerging surplus of energy resources. The upcoming changes in both the structure of liquid fuel consumption and its production are discussed in detail.

References

1. Bezopasnost’ i kontrol’ nad vooruzheniyami 2015–2016. Mezhdunarodnoye vzaimodeystviye v bor’be s global’nymi ugrozami (Security and Arms Control 2015-2016. International cooperation in combating global threats): edited by Arbatov A.G., Bubnova N.I., Moscow: Publ. by IM·EMO, RAS, 2016, 303 p.

2. Mastepanov A.M., On the evolution of world energy forecasts made in 2013/2014 and 2016 (In Russ.), Neftyanoye khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2017, no. 4, pp. 20–25.

3. Market report series: Oil 2017. Analysis and forecasts to 2022, URL: http://www.iea.org/bookshop/740-Market_Report_Series:_Oil_2017

4. Medium term oil market report 2016. Market analysis and forecasts to 2021, URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/MTOMR2016.pdf

5. World Oil Outlook 2016. Organization of the petroleum exporting countries, 2016; World Oil Outlook 2040. Organization of the petroleum exporting countries, 2017, URL: http://www.opec.org

6. Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2017; Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). January 2018, URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/outlook.php#issues2017

7. World Energy Outlook 2017. OECD/IEA, 2017, 782 p.

8. Mastepanov A.M., Prospects of development of the oil industry of Russia in assessments of national and foreign experts (part 1) (In Russ.), Neftyanoye khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2014, no. 11, pp. 83–87 (part 1); no. 12, pp. 92–94 (part 2).

9. IEEJ Outlook 2018. Tokyo, 12 October 2017, URL: http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/ data/­7748.pdf

10. World Energy Outlook 2016. OECD/IEA, 2016, 684 r.

11. International Energy Outlook 2016. With Projections to 2040. May 2016; International Energy Outlook 2017. September 14, 2017, URL: https://www.eia.gov/­outlooks/­ieo/

12. ASIA/World Energy Outlook 2016. IEEJ, October 2016, 256 p.

13. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. ExxonMobil, 2016; Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. ExxonMobil, 2017, URL: http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/search

14. Mastepanov A.M., Energy forecasts of the world energy council (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2017, no. 5, pp.12–17.вЃ 

The complex of questions connected with long-term forecasting of development of oil and gas sector of world economy in the context with forecasting of global energy consumption in general is considered in the article. The most important factors, problems, trends and events that determine the behavior of the oil market in the short and medium term are considered. The analysis of the forecasts published in 2016-2017 of the world's leading forecasting centers - the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, the OPEC Secretariat, Japan Energy Economics Institute and ExxonMobil - is carried out. Based on this analysis, the main trends and patterns of development of global energy consumption in the period up to 2040 were revealed. Among them are further improvement of the energy balance in use without carbon and low-carbon energy and energy resources, while the role of oil in it in the latest forecasts even grows. The inconsistency of the considered forecasts is particularly noted that, according to the author, the degree of uncertainty of development of both the world economy as a whole and the world energy is growing. In his treasure in this growth are making and globalization, and geopolitics, and the explosive development of science and technology. The situation is aggravated by the emerging surplus of energy resources. The upcoming changes in both the structure of liquid fuel consumption and its production are discussed in detail.

References

1. Bezopasnost’ i kontrol’ nad vooruzheniyami 2015–2016. Mezhdunarodnoye vzaimodeystviye v bor’be s global’nymi ugrozami (Security and Arms Control 2015-2016. International cooperation in combating global threats): edited by Arbatov A.G., Bubnova N.I., Moscow: Publ. by IM·EMO, RAS, 2016, 303 p.

2. Mastepanov A.M., On the evolution of world energy forecasts made in 2013/2014 and 2016 (In Russ.), Neftyanoye khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2017, no. 4, pp. 20–25.

3. Market report series: Oil 2017. Analysis and forecasts to 2022, URL: http://www.iea.org/bookshop/740-Market_Report_Series:_Oil_2017

4. Medium term oil market report 2016. Market analysis and forecasts to 2021, URL: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/MTOMR2016.pdf

5. World Oil Outlook 2016. Organization of the petroleum exporting countries, 2016; World Oil Outlook 2040. Organization of the petroleum exporting countries, 2017, URL: http://www.opec.org

6. Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January 2017; Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). January 2018, URL: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/outlook.php#issues2017

7. World Energy Outlook 2017. OECD/IEA, 2017, 782 p.

8. Mastepanov A.M., Prospects of development of the oil industry of Russia in assessments of national and foreign experts (part 1) (In Russ.), Neftyanoye khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2014, no. 11, pp. 83–87 (part 1); no. 12, pp. 92–94 (part 2).

9. IEEJ Outlook 2018. Tokyo, 12 October 2017, URL: http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/ data/­7748.pdf

10. World Energy Outlook 2016. OECD/IEA, 2016, 684 r.

11. International Energy Outlook 2016. With Projections to 2040. May 2016; International Energy Outlook 2017. September 14, 2017, URL: https://www.eia.gov/­outlooks/­ieo/

12. ASIA/World Energy Outlook 2016. IEEJ, October 2016, 256 p.

13. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. ExxonMobil, 2016; Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. ExxonMobil, 2017, URL: http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/search

14. Mastepanov A.M., Energy forecasts of the world energy council (In Russ.), Problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya neftegazovym kompleksom, 2017, no. 5, pp.12–17.вЃ 



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