Costs modeling: support point in a changing world

UDK: 338.45:622.276
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2017-10-64-68
Key words: cost estimation, capital expenditures, cost models, cost engineering
Authors: S.V. Chizhikov, E.A. Dubovitskaya, M.A. Tkachenko (Ingenix Group, RF, Moscow)

Significant changes in current economical, political and also geological and technological factors influencing the construction costs of oil and gas companies, force them to look for innovative approaches for cost estimation, especially on the early stages of projects’ development.  Decline of oil prices, decrease of ruble exchange rate, international sanctions toward Russia as well as difficult reservoirs characteristics making hydrocarbons production more challenging put a pressure on cost estimation and optimization. Development of cost models for oil and gas construction allows estimating costs with consideration of modeling object technical characteristics and changes in the environment. The paper describes principles, methods and key elements of cost models actively implementing for capital costs evaluation in Russian oil& gas companies. In the article there are examples of data bases used by companies for cost estimation: “smeta” estimate norms, corporate cost data bases on real projects, external data bases. Authors analyze rules for choosing of the proper analogue, taking into account that the main question is choosing analogue with required characteristics as well as proper implementation of the cost data for the new object. In the article authors suggest to use different types of costs models depending on construction objects type,  for example, calculation models for linear objects and structured in a certain way analogues or “flexible” model for areal objects. Considering existing cost data bases and methods for costs analysis, even currently you can get detailed and accurate estimation of the costs.

References

1. Khasanov M.M., Maksimov Yu.V., Skudar O.O., Tretiakov S.V., Pashkevich L.A., Sugaipov D.A., Cost engineering in Gazprom Neft PJSC: current situation and future development (in Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no.12, pp. 30–33.

2. Dubovitskaya E.A., Pashchenko A.D., Chizhikov S.V., Problems and proposed solutions for oil and gas projects cost estimation in Russia (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2013, no. 9, pp. 92–95.

3. Bozieva I.A., Zinnatullin D.F., Aspects of corporate information system development to generate the costs of construction facilities and oil and gas fields infrastructure development (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no.2, pp. 114–117.

4. Chizhikov S.V., Dubovitskaya E.A., A new approach to the assessment and management of oil and gas projects cost (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2012, no. 9, pp. 98–101.

5. Atnagulov A.R., Rakhmangulov R.D., Vinogradov P.V., Kireev G.A., Gizbrekht D.Yu., Developing CAPEX database for oil field surface facilities construction at Bashneft PJSOC (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no.8, pp. 98–101.

Significant changes in current economical, political and also geological and technological factors influencing the construction costs of oil and gas companies, force them to look for innovative approaches for cost estimation, especially on the early stages of projects’ development.  Decline of oil prices, decrease of ruble exchange rate, international sanctions toward Russia as well as difficult reservoirs characteristics making hydrocarbons production more challenging put a pressure on cost estimation and optimization. Development of cost models for oil and gas construction allows estimating costs with consideration of modeling object technical characteristics and changes in the environment. The paper describes principles, methods and key elements of cost models actively implementing for capital costs evaluation in Russian oil& gas companies. In the article there are examples of data bases used by companies for cost estimation: “smeta” estimate norms, corporate cost data bases on real projects, external data bases. Authors analyze rules for choosing of the proper analogue, taking into account that the main question is choosing analogue with required characteristics as well as proper implementation of the cost data for the new object. In the article authors suggest to use different types of costs models depending on construction objects type,  for example, calculation models for linear objects and structured in a certain way analogues or “flexible” model for areal objects. Considering existing cost data bases and methods for costs analysis, even currently you can get detailed and accurate estimation of the costs.

References

1. Khasanov M.M., Maksimov Yu.V., Skudar O.O., Tretiakov S.V., Pashkevich L.A., Sugaipov D.A., Cost engineering in Gazprom Neft PJSC: current situation and future development (in Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no.12, pp. 30–33.

2. Dubovitskaya E.A., Pashchenko A.D., Chizhikov S.V., Problems and proposed solutions for oil and gas projects cost estimation in Russia (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2013, no. 9, pp. 92–95.

3. Bozieva I.A., Zinnatullin D.F., Aspects of corporate information system development to generate the costs of construction facilities and oil and gas fields infrastructure development (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2016, no.2, pp. 114–117.

4. Chizhikov S.V., Dubovitskaya E.A., A new approach to the assessment and management of oil and gas projects cost (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2012, no. 9, pp. 98–101.

5. Atnagulov A.R., Rakhmangulov R.D., Vinogradov P.V., Kireev G.A., Gizbrekht D.Yu., Developing CAPEX database for oil field surface facilities construction at Bashneft PJSOC (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2015, no.8, pp. 98–101.


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