Влияние нефтяных цен на приоритеты мирового развития нефтегазовой отрасли, C. 8-12

UDK: 338.45:622.276

DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2017-2-8-12

Key words: world oil market, prices, forecasts, the global economy and energy, the costs and expenses, of development priorities

Authors: A.M. Mastepanov (Oil and Gas Research Institute of RAS, RF, Moscow)

The article deals with the complex of issues related to the prioritization of the global oil and gas industry development in the conditions of high and low energy prices. It shows the change in these priorities in a slowing global economic growth and falling oil prices. At the high oil prices in the global balance of liquid fuels the resources of expensive oil began to be actively attracted (deepwater fields, Arctic shelf, tight oil and oil of low-permeability reservoirs of the United States, oil sands in Canada, extra heavy oil of Venezuela, and others). Were actively working on the. In the corresponding projections made in 2012 - early 2014, the world's leading analytical centers provided a significant increase in the production of these expensive hydrocarbons. However, in the recent years the situation has changed dramatically. The slowdown in 2014 of the global economic growth has caused the weakening of demand for oil, and in September 2014, the prices began to decline, and then completely collapsed. It is shown that the reaction to falling oil prices from its manufacturers was to be expected: the rejection of costly new projects and improving of technology in order to reduce production costs. The low oil prices firstly affected the developing deepwater and Arctic resources of traditional hydrocarbons, as well as oil-bearing sandstones, and heavy oil. Based on the analysis of various factors, including macroeconomic, it was concluded that the period of low prices would last at least 5-7 years. In these conditions we can expect further fierce competition for the place in the energy mix (balance) of the hydrocarbons, produced on the Arctic shelf, made as a result of improving oil and gas producing fields and development of deep-water and unconventional oil and gas. Each of these areas has a significant resource base, corresponding to the "pros" and "cons" associated with the conditions of production and delivery of products to the markets. Therefore, the priorities in their development in the first place will be determined by the latest technical and technological solutions, allowing cost effective production of hydrocarbons with acceptable environmental risks and impacts.

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The article deals with the complex of issues related to the prioritization of the global oil and gas industry development in the conditions of high and low energy prices. It shows the change in these priorities in a slowing global economic growth and falling oil prices. At the high oil prices in the global balance of liquid fuels the resources of expensive oil began to be actively attracted (deepwater fields, Arctic shelf, tight oil and oil of low-permeability reservoirs of the United States, oil sands in Canada, extra heavy oil of Venezuela, and others). Were actively working on the. In the corresponding projections made in 2012 - early 2014, the world's leading analytical centers provided a significant increase in the production of these expensive hydrocarbons. However, in the recent years the situation has changed dramatically. The slowdown in 2014 of the global economic growth has caused the weakening of demand for oil, and in September 2014, the prices began to decline, and then completely collapsed. It is shown that the reaction to falling oil prices from its manufacturers was to be expected: the rejection of costly new projects and improving of technology in order to reduce production costs. The low oil prices firstly affected the developing deepwater and Arctic resources of traditional hydrocarbons, as well as oil-bearing sandstones, and heavy oil. Based on the analysis of various factors, including macroeconomic, it was concluded that the period of low prices would last at least 5-7 years. In these conditions we can expect further fierce competition for the place in the energy mix (balance) of the hydrocarbons, produced on the Arctic shelf, made as a result of improving oil and gas producing fields and development of deep-water and unconventional oil and gas. Each of these areas has a significant resource base, corresponding to the "pros" and "cons" associated with the conditions of production and delivery of products to the markets. Therefore, the priorities in their development in the first place will be determined by the latest technical and technological solutions, allowing cost effective production of hydrocarbons with acceptable environmental risks and impacts.