Development of probabilistic model for technical and economics evaluation of oil field on depletion

Authors: M.V. Naugolnov, N.F. Teplyakov, M.N. Pislegin, A.A. Borodkin (Gazpromneft NTC LLC, RF, Saint-Petersburg)

Key words: probabilistic model, statistic model, project evaluation, reservoir evaluation, CAPEX estimation, economics evaluation, optimal decision selection

This paper is dedicated to program module that gives an opportunity to provide automatically the full cycle of probabilistic estimation of oil greenfield development on depletion fr om STOIIP estimation to economic evaluation. A special attention is paid to the selection of optimal decision in geological uncertainties. Lim itations of popular deterministic and scenarious methods of project evaluation and advantages of full cycle of probabilistic evaluation from geology to economics are described. The basis of program module are Monte-Carlo method that uses discrete and continuous distributions of parameters, material balance model, model of decline curve, model of estimation surface facilities and a simple economics model for net present value estimation.
References
1. Makarov A.V., Ekonomicheskie voprosy proektirovaniya i razrabotki
neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy (Economic issues of design and development of
oil fields), St. Peterburg: Nedra Publ., 2010, 196 p.
2. Andreev A.F., Zubareva V.D., Sarkisov A.S., Otsenka effektivnosti i riskov innovatsionnykh
proektov neftegazovoy otrasli (Eval uating the effectiveness and
risks of innovative oil and gas projects), Moscow: Maks Press Publ., 2008, 236 p.
3. Arps J.J., Analysis of decline curves, Trans. AIME: 1945, V. 160, pp. 228-247.

Key words: probabilistic model, statistic model, project evaluation, reservoir evaluation, CAPEX estimation, economics evaluation, optimal decision selection

This paper is dedicated to program module that gives an opportunity to provide automatically the full cycle of probabilistic estimation of oil greenfield development on depletion fr om STOIIP estimation to economic evaluation. A special attention is paid to the selection of optimal decision in geological uncertainties. Lim itations of popular deterministic and scenarious methods of project evaluation and advantages of full cycle of probabilistic evaluation from geology to economics are described. The basis of program module are Monte-Carlo method that uses discrete and continuous distributions of parameters, material balance model, model of decline curve, model of estimation surface facilities and a simple economics model for net present value estimation.
References
1. Makarov A.V., Ekonomicheskie voprosy proektirovaniya i razrabotki
neftyanykh mestorozhdeniy (Economic issues of design and development of
oil fields), St. Peterburg: Nedra Publ., 2010, 196 p.
2. Andreev A.F., Zubareva V.D., Sarkisov A.S., Otsenka effektivnosti i riskov innovatsionnykh
proektov neftegazovoy otrasli (Eval uating the effectiveness and
risks of innovative oil and gas projects), Moscow: Maks Press Publ., 2008, 236 p.
3. Arps J.J., Analysis of decline curves, Trans. AIME: 1945, V. 160, pp. 228-247.


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