On the economic feasibility of developing fields with hard-to-recover oil reserves

UDK: 338.45:622.276

DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2021-2-18-21

Key words: hard-to-recover oil reserves, extraction, mineral extraction tax (MET), income, tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production

Authors: I.Sh. Shchekaturova (RN-BashNIPIneft LLC, RF, Ufa), S.A. Kolomasova (RN-BashNIPIneft LLC, RF, Ufa), M.S. Antonov (RN-BashNIPIneft LLC, RF, Ufa; Ufa State Petroleum Technical University, RF, Ufa), O.B. Kuzmichev (RN-BashNIPIneft LLC, RF, Ufa)

This article considers a step-by-step petrophysical assessment of the prospects for classifying the reserves of the Achimov deposits as hard-to-recover. For five oil fields in Western Siberia calculations are made on economic models for various scenarios of the ratio of oil production in case of hard-to-recover reserves and in case of deposits that do not belong to this category of reserves. The share of production from low-permeable reservoirs is established, at which it is more effective to use a reduction factor that takes into account the complexity of oil production (coefficient that characterizes the degree of complexity of oil production) equal to 0.2 and 0.4 in comparison with the regime of tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production at certain specific costs. It is shown that in addition to the share of hard-to-recover oil in the total volume from the field, it is necessary to know the boundary value of the unit cost per ton of oil, which significantly affects the economic attractiveness of the project. For five fields in Western Siberia, generalized dependences of the boundary value of unit costs, at which the mineral extraction tax (MET) regime is a priority, on the share of hard-to-recover reserves production for different reduction coefficients. With a significant amount of hard-to-recover reserves production in a specific price range and unit cost of benefits met enhance economic effect, the MET regime allows to increase the economic effect in comparison with the regime of tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production. However, if the price policy deteriorates, the MET regime becomes economically unstable, while the regime of tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production remains less sensitive and minimizes the economic risks of the oil company. Modeling the priority of hard-to-recover reserves production in the total volume of oil produced at the field for various price scenarios allows us to predict the economic effect of the practical application of the tax systems of MET and tax on additional income from hydrocarbon production.