Statistical methods for data and displacement characteristics analysis co-application can be used as an effective tool for the prediction of an oil production in the conditions of a low descriptiveness of geological characteristics of oil reservoirs and physical properties of oil. A systematic literature review showed that the development of the algorithm to determine displacement characteristics is an actual problem.
In order to solve the mentioned problem, the algorithm based on regression methods, prediction methods, optimization methods, and ranking methods was proposed. The used wells stock is formed by the exclusion of wells where workover actions were performed either to increase the inflow rate, or to obtain an influx from an inactive well, or to obtain an influx from a new well, or to change an influx structure from the active wells stock by the last monthly production report date.
The algorithm for the determination of displacement characteristics was tested on oil fields of Bashneft PJSOC. As the result, 162 displacement characteristics of oil fields were determined. The quality of displacement characteristics was defined by the adequacy criteria and accuracy criteria. Using determined displacement characteristics, the median of the module of the mean deviation of the estimated oil production rate from the real one was 7.85% during the retrospective period.
Based on the test results, the proposed algorithm is confirmed to be sustainable and resultative and can be applied to predict base oil production in oil companies.
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