Review of international practices in diagnostics and accidents forecasting for ESP units

UDK: 622.276.53.004.14
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2024-1-84-89
Key words: ESP accidents forecasting, ESP diagnostics, machine learning, deterministic models, expert models, fuzzy logic
Authors: V.A. Veprev (EJP TEKNOLODZhI LTD, RF, Moscow), M.I. Kuzmin (Gazpromneft STC LLC, RF, Saint Petersburg), A.I. Ponomareva

To date computer technologies are being actively introduced into the industry. One of the urgent issues at the moment is a proactive approach to the prevention of equipment failures. The purpose of this paper is a review of existing approaches to diagnostics and failures prediction of electric submersible pumps (ESP) units. A literature review was conducted in the domain of diagnostics and forecasting of ESP malfunctions. There are 4 main approaches observed: deterministic, expert-based, data-based, and hybrid. A deterministic approach uses functional or analytical dependencies, an expert approach is based on the available knowledge base, which is used in the form of patterns interpreted by specialists, a data-based approach identifies existing patterns based on the historical archive of data, and hybrid approach may include various options for combining main approaches. For each group examples, features and results are provided where possible. Applicability and limitations of each category are given. As a result of literature analysis, the advantages and disadvantages of existing approaches are established. Main advantages of deterministic approaches are interpretability and non-dependence on historical data. Expert rules are mainly used in the diagnosis of the current state without forecasting, unlike fuzzy logic approaches. The effectiveness of this approach depends on the quality of the applied rules and data. The main advantage of the data-based approach is the absence of detailed physical modeling of systems or processes. The main disadvantage is the dependence on the volume and quality of historical data. A promising direction is combined approaches that include several models, thereby adopting the advantages of each one of them.

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