Логин:
Пароль:
Регистрация
Забыли свой пароль?

Opportunities for strengthening methods of evaluating economic performance of the innovative projects

UDK: 330.322
DOI: 10.24887/0028-2448-2017-11-8-11
Key words: performance evaluation, innovations, research and development
Authors: R.M. Alparov, I.Sh. Khasanov, I.A. Meshkov (Rosneft Oil Company, RF, Moscow)

Innovations management, development of R&D effectiveness valuation instruments, innovative projects portfolio optimization is one of the priorities in oil&gas companies. In this context authors have analyzed approaches to economic performance valuation of innovative projects, employed in Rosneft Oil Company PJSC. The currently employed valuation procedure is focused on the calculation of expected net present value (NPV) with valuation of success optionality of the innovation project’s different stages as well as drawing of project’s decision tree, showing key milestones in the management’s decision making process with regard to project’s financing or closure. Optionality allows a more precise project’s NPV valuation, considering risks of each stage fulfillment: research and development stage, engineering stage, including pilot implementation, and final implementation of a technology. Analysis has shown that the current methodology may be enhanced by adding negative results valuation, as well as by including R&D in production costs or increasing R&D costs by coefficient1.5. Application of the methods analyzed in the article will allow improving the quality of the innovative projects valuation and raising the projects’ economic effectiveness to an acceptable level, including projects with negative economic effectiveness at different stages of realization. Innovative projects portfolio becomes more flexible to the external and internal factors, as it includes projects valuated with NPV optionality methodology and includes the whole economic potential of the innovations.

References

1. Ismagilov A.F., Belkina E.Yu., Khasanov I.Sh., Bortsvadze L.N., A technique of an estimation of innovative projects efficiency in Rosneft NK OAO (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2008, no. 12, pp. 10–13.

2. Belkina E.Yu., Khasanov I.Sh., Polovinkin E.A., The methods of russian oil and gas companies of evaluating the effect of innovative projects (In Russ.), Territoriya Neftegaz, 2011, no. 4.

3. Khasanov M.M., Belkina E.Yu., Zagurenko A.G. et al., Innovation projects valuation using options theory (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2010, no. 8, pp. 20–22.

4. Krukovskiy A.A., The method of real options in investment management (In Russ.), Trudy ISA RAN, 2008, V. 37, pp. 122-144.

5. Khasanov I.Sh., Dunaev V.F., Belkina E.Yu., Formirovanie sistemy upravleniya nauchno-issledovatel’skimi i opytno-konstruktorskimi rabotami neftegazovoy kompanii (Formation of a control system for research and development in the oil and gas company), Ufa: Mir Pechati Publ., 2015, 208 p.

6. Tsui M., Valuing innovative technology R&D as a real option: application to fuel cell vehicles, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005, 117 p.

7. Budylin M.A., Application of real options for the investment projects valuation (In Russ.), Vestnik SGAU imeni akademika M.F. Reshetneva, 2007, no. 4, pp. 157–160.

8. Kerr W.R., Nanda R., Financing innovation, Harvard Business School, Working paper 15–034, 2014, 24 p.

9. Salerno M.S., Gomes L.A. de V., Brasil V.C., Valuation of innovation projects with high uncertainty: Reasons behind the implementation of real options, International Association for Management of Technology, IAMOT 2015 Conference Proceedings, University of Sao Paulo, pp. 389–403.

10. Vilenskiy P.L., Livshits V.N., Smolyak S.A., Otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov: Teoriya i praktika (Evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects: Theory and practice), Moscow: Delo Publ., 2001, 2002.

11. Kossov V.V., Livshits V.N., Shakhnazarov A.G. et al., Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po otsenke effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov (Methodical recommendations for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects), Moscow: Ekonomika Publ., 2000, 421 p.

12. Andreev A.F., Dunaev V.F., Zubareva V.D. et al., Osnovy proektnogo analiza v neftyanoy i gazovoy promyshlennosti (Fundamentals of project analysis in the oil and gas industry), Publ. of RF Ministry of Natural Resources, 1997, 341 p.

Innovations management, development of R&D effectiveness valuation instruments, innovative projects portfolio optimization is one of the priorities in oil&gas companies. In this context authors have analyzed approaches to economic performance valuation of innovative projects, employed in Rosneft Oil Company PJSC. The currently employed valuation procedure is focused on the calculation of expected net present value (NPV) with valuation of success optionality of the innovation project’s different stages as well as drawing of project’s decision tree, showing key milestones in the management’s decision making process with regard to project’s financing or closure. Optionality allows a more precise project’s NPV valuation, considering risks of each stage fulfillment: research and development stage, engineering stage, including pilot implementation, and final implementation of a technology. Analysis has shown that the current methodology may be enhanced by adding negative results valuation, as well as by including R&D in production costs or increasing R&D costs by coefficient1.5. Application of the methods analyzed in the article will allow improving the quality of the innovative projects valuation and raising the projects’ economic effectiveness to an acceptable level, including projects with negative economic effectiveness at different stages of realization. Innovative projects portfolio becomes more flexible to the external and internal factors, as it includes projects valuated with NPV optionality methodology and includes the whole economic potential of the innovations.

References

1. Ismagilov A.F., Belkina E.Yu., Khasanov I.Sh., Bortsvadze L.N., A technique of an estimation of innovative projects efficiency in Rosneft NK OAO (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2008, no. 12, pp. 10–13.

2. Belkina E.Yu., Khasanov I.Sh., Polovinkin E.A., The methods of russian oil and gas companies of evaluating the effect of innovative projects (In Russ.), Territoriya Neftegaz, 2011, no. 4.

3. Khasanov M.M., Belkina E.Yu., Zagurenko A.G. et al., Innovation projects valuation using options theory (In Russ.), Neftyanoe khozyaystvo = Oil Industry, 2010, no. 8, pp. 20–22.

4. Krukovskiy A.A., The method of real options in investment management (In Russ.), Trudy ISA RAN, 2008, V. 37, pp. 122-144.

5. Khasanov I.Sh., Dunaev V.F., Belkina E.Yu., Formirovanie sistemy upravleniya nauchno-issledovatel’skimi i opytno-konstruktorskimi rabotami neftegazovoy kompanii (Formation of a control system for research and development in the oil and gas company), Ufa: Mir Pechati Publ., 2015, 208 p.

6. Tsui M., Valuing innovative technology R&D as a real option: application to fuel cell vehicles, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005, 117 p.

7. Budylin M.A., Application of real options for the investment projects valuation (In Russ.), Vestnik SGAU imeni akademika M.F. Reshetneva, 2007, no. 4, pp. 157–160.

8. Kerr W.R., Nanda R., Financing innovation, Harvard Business School, Working paper 15–034, 2014, 24 p.

9. Salerno M.S., Gomes L.A. de V., Brasil V.C., Valuation of innovation projects with high uncertainty: Reasons behind the implementation of real options, International Association for Management of Technology, IAMOT 2015 Conference Proceedings, University of Sao Paulo, pp. 389–403.

10. Vilenskiy P.L., Livshits V.N., Smolyak S.A., Otsenka effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov: Teoriya i praktika (Evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects: Theory and practice), Moscow: Delo Publ., 2001, 2002.

11. Kossov V.V., Livshits V.N., Shakhnazarov A.G. et al., Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po otsenke effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov (Methodical recommendations for evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects), Moscow: Ekonomika Publ., 2000, 421 p.

12. Andreev A.F., Dunaev V.F., Zubareva V.D. et al., Osnovy proektnogo analiza v neftyanoy i gazovoy promyshlennosti (Fundamentals of project analysis in the oil and gas industry), Publ. of RF Ministry of Natural Resources, 1997, 341 p.


Attention!
To buy the complete text of article (a format - PDF) or to read the material which is in open access only the authorized visitors of the website can. .

Mobile applications

Read our magazine on mobile devices

Загрузить в Google play

Press Releases

19.10.2020
15.10.2020
10.10.2020